ESSO - Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services

ABOUT THE TALK:

One of the key aspects of NOAA’s Mission is, “To understand and predict changes in the climate, weather, oceans, and coasts...” with a long-term goal of achieving a, “Weather-ready Nation,” in which society is able to prepare for and respond to weather-related events. This objective specifies the need to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). Great strides have been made in improving forecasts of TC track, and forecast errors have decreased by about 50% over the past 30 years. However, there has been much less improvement in forecasts of TC intensity, structure, and rainfall. This lack of improvement is largely the result of deficiencies in routinely collecting inner-core data and assimilating it into numerical weather prediction models, limitations in the models themselves, and gaps in understanding of the physics of TCs and their interaction with the environment. Beginning in 2021, the NOAA Hurricane Field Program (HFP) was flown as the Advancing the Prediction of Hurricanes EXperiment (APHEX; Zawislak et al. 2022). APHEX broadens previous HFP goals by incorporating current, 5-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) priorities around better forecasting and communicating for all storm hazards (wind, rain, surge, and tornadoes).

ABOUT THE SPEAKER:

Dr. Ghassan Alaka is a Meteorologist in the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FL, where he focuses on numerical hurricane prediction models and transitions of research to operations (R2O). Gus is one of the lead developers of operational hurricane forecast models at NOAA, including the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. Gus leads research activities into numerous hurricane-focused topics, including multi-storm and multi-scale interactions, tropical cyclogenesis, forecast verification, and large-scale dynamics. He was a lead developer of an experimental version of HWRF, called the “Basin-scale HWRF” which showed that storm-following nests are an efficient way to improve hurricane intensity forecasts.

Registration Process:

By invitation only.

Date & Time of the Seminar: 18^th April, 2024 from 03:00 PM to 03:45 PM IST (GMT+5:30 Hrs).

Venue

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India,
"Ocean Valley", Pragathi Nagar (B.O), Nizampet (S.O)
Hyderabad - 500 090, INDIA

Organizer

International Training Centre for Operational Oceanography (ITCOocean)
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
(Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India)
"Ocean Valley", Pragathi Nagar (B.O.)
Nizampet (S.O.), HYDERABAD - 500 090
TELANGANA
INDIA
Tel : +91 40 23895000
Fax : +91 40 23895001
Email: itcoocean@incois.gov.in; itcoocean@gmail.com
Additional informations/queries can be directed to:TVS Udaya Bhaskar (uday@incois.gov.in)

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